Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, September 30, 2014

140930 Severe Weather Probability - cropWhile there will be at least a few possible thunderstorms in Arkansas on Wednesday, chances for severe weather on Wednesday look to be low. On Thursday, however, the arrival of a cold front will bring a much better chance of thunderstorms to the state. A line of thunderstorms will probably develop near or just ahead of the front, and chances for severe weather will exist from Thursday afternoon through the evening, then could continue in eastern Arkansas after midnight.

John Robinson of the National Weather Service Little Rock office says pretty much the entire state will see some chance of severe weather…and that damaging wind gusts should have a greater chance of occurrence, rather than large hail. Robinson says, while it does not appear that we will have a big outbreak of severe weather, he does expect that some severe thunderstorm warnings will become necessary.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center gives the entire state of Arkansas a 15% probability of severe weather on Thursday. The most common rainfall amounts should fall in the 3/4 to 1 1/2 inch range, but some totals around 2 inches are not out of the question.

Keep up with the latest weather forecast for the Arkansas River Valley region here.

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