The areas of showers and thunderstorms in Arkansas late this morning will continue moving to the northeast. It seems likely that we will see some additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon into this evening.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely to occur Monday and Monday night, with some of the storms continuing on Tuesday.
The main severe weather threat areas will be the southern half of Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then much of the state (southeast of a line roughly from Waldron to Mammoth Spring) Monday and Monday night. I do expect that we will see some severe thunderstorm warnings become necessary each day.
From this afternoon through Monday night, damaging winds will probably have a somewhat greater chance of occurring than large hail. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out completely. I will mention once again that, due to soggy ground, gusty thunderstorms will result in trees and power lines being blown down. On Tuesday, any severe weather may shift more toward a threat of large hail.
Later in the week, we could see more storms, roughly in the Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for most of northern and central Arkansas.
From today through Tuesday night, rainfall amounts are likely to average 1 1/4 to 2 1/2 inches over much of the state. There will likely be some local totals of 3 to 5 inches. I do think that chances for flash flooding over the next 48 hours will be greater than we have seen the past couple of days.
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock