Severe Weather Outlook for Monday, May 12, 2014

From this afternoon through this evening, a few severe thunderstorms could occur over the northwest half of the state. Best chances will be west of a line from De Queen to Clinton to Salem (Fulton County). Large hail and damaging winds will be the severe weather threats. Chances for an isolated tornado are low but not zero.

For the tornado recovery areas: Chances for thunderstorms will begin around midday and increase after that with each passing hour.

Heavy rain and the threat of flash flooding will be a greater concern. Flash Flood Watches have already been issued for many counties in Arkansas. Greatest chances for excessive amounts of rain will be from tonight into Tuesday, especially in western Arkansas. Another round of rain will affect the state from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Rainfall amounts through Wednesday will range from 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches over the extreme eastern part of the state and 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 inches elsewhere. Greatest amounts are likely to be in western Arkansas, where totals could easily exceed 5 inches. Life-threatening flash flooding could result.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock