SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK by John Robinson, WCM (Sunday, April 27, 2014, 11:20 AM)

A line of thunderstorms moving out of Oklahoma will present some chance of severe weather as it moves into Arkansas early this afternoon.  Severe weather chances should increase as we go through the afternoon and into the evening. At that time, additional storms will be developing in the state.

I know everyone wants to know when the best chances of severe weather are going to be in their particular area. This time around, although we may see short lines of storms develop at times, we are unlikely to see a big line of storms sweeping across the state. Rather, it is much more likely that we will see storms developing here-and-there. Thus, it’s almost impossible to say when a given area will be affected. The main thing to keep in mind is that the greatest chance of severe weather in Arkansas will occur from later this afternoon on through the evening hours. The threat of severe storm should exit eastern Arkansas a few hours after midnight.

It still looks as though the chances of severe weather will be the greatest than we have seen so far this year. We expect to see at least a few tornadoes. It is possible that at least a couple of tornadoes could be EF2 or greater in intensity. Large hail – some larger than golf ball size – is expected, along with damaging thunderstorm winds.

On Monday, there will be a chance of severe weather east of a line from El Dorado to Little Rock to Mammoth Spring from late morning through the afternoon hours. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two will all be possible. Greatest chances should be in areas closest to the Mississippi River. The severe weather threat should exit eastern Arkansas by late afternoon or early evening.

In addition to the severe weather threat, there will also be some heavy rain in Arkansas. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for all of northeast and east central Arkansas, as well as for parts of north central and central Arkansas. I do expect to see some Flash Flood Warnings become necessary, especially in eastern Arkansas. Rainfall amounts from today through Monday night should range from 3/4 to 1 3/4 inches in western Arkansas, and from 1 to 3 inches elsewhere. Largest amounts will be in eastern Arkansas, where some totals could reach 4 inches or more.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock