Greater chances of severe weather will exist with storms redeveloping at mid to late afternoon Sunday in the western part of the state, These storms will move to the east during the evening, exiting eastern Arkansas a few hours after midnight.
Large hail (some greater than golf ball size), damaging winds, and some tornadoes are expected. There could be at least a couple of tornadoes of EF2 or greater intensity. All in all, this looks to be our biggest severe weather threat so far this year.
Some storms are likely to redevelop in the state on Monday (mainly during the afternoon), especially over the southeastern half of Arkansas. Severe weather could occur once again, with large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all possible. The farther east you go in the state, the better the chances of severe weather. These storms should exit Arkansas early Monday evening.
As is usually the case when we have several rounds of storms, some heavy rain is going to occur. Rainfall amounts from Sunday morning through Monday evening: Over western Arkansas, totals in the 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch range should be the most common. Elsewhere, 1 1/2 to 3 1/2 inch totals are most likely, and there could be some 4+ inch amounts in eastern Arkansas.
I will issue the next message around 11 AM Sunday.
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock